Road to Madness: Latest analysis to help your bracket research

The regular season is over, conference tournaments are nearly sorted, and the bracket officially drops Sunday. That's right: The Madness has arrived.

theScore has conference championship week fully covered, giving you all the information you need heading into Selection Sunday.

Jump to:
Michigan leaves no doubt | Vandy humbles Florida | Acuff the newest March star| Arizona, Iowa State are title threats | Auburn finally finished? | Miami (OH) shouldn't panic | Indiana the football school | Ex-stars-turned-tourney coaches | Gonzaga waves goodbye to WCC | Look out for Long Island | Stanford, Virginia Tech fall fast | Duke's injuries | Santa Clara's stunner | Florida's chase for 1-seed

Saturday, March 14

Michigan puts No. 1 seed beyond any doubt

Michigan was likely already a lock for a No. 1 seed, but you can consider that ironclad thanks to the heroics of Yaxel Lendeborg. Wisconsin gave the Big Ten's top seed all it could handle in the conference tourney semifinals Saturday, even tying the game on a clutch triple in the final minute. However, Lendeborg spoke last, and loudest, for the Wolverines with a 3-pointer of his own in the last second of play to secure the win.

The Wolverines will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of whether they win the Big Ten final on Sunday, but they do have an extra incentive for that matchup. Should Michigan win, Dusty May's outfit still has a very real shot at the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket - especially if Duke loses the ACC title game to Virginia later on Saturday.

Vanderbilt humbles Florida

The most stunning early result Saturday came from the SEC semifinal between Vanderbilt and Florida. The Gators entered as double-digit favorites for a reason, rolling into the contest on a sizzling 12-game winning streak. That clearly didn't impress the Commodores, who pounded Florida from the jump to emerge with a 17-point blowout win.

Vanderbilt's balanced scoring took care of the offense, but the defense was largely responsible for the upset win. Florida missed 12-of-13 shots at one point in the first half and finished the game a dismal 5-of-17 from beyond the arc. Add 14 turnovers to the mix and it's easy to see how Vanderbilt pulled off the upset. The Commodores will easily be one of the scariest No. 4 or 5 seeds in the bracket, while the Gators may have cost themselves the final No. 1 seed with the loss.

Friday, March 13

Acuff set for March stardom

The NCAA Tournament serves as an annual launching pad for players to achieve genuine stardom rather than just acclaim among college basketball diehards. Well, the world is about to be introduced to Darius Acuff Jr. The Arkansas star painted his latest masterpiece Friday to oust Oklahoma from the SEC tourney, pouring in 37 points to help the Razorbacks pull away late. The freshman is now averaging an outrageous 29 points per game over his last eight contests and comes to March Madness as hot as any other scorer in the nation.

Arkansas was already in the NCAA Tournament field and will simply be playing to improve its seeding the remainder of the weekend. The same cannot be said for Oklahoma. The Sooners entered Friday's contest as the final team out of the field, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, and the loss certainly won't help that case. Results could go the Sooners' way with other teams on the bubble, but Selection Sunday is set to be a very stressful experience in Norman.

Arkansas' next opponent doubles as the most unlikely story across major-conference tournament play this week. With wins over Texas, Georgia, and Alabama, Ole Miss is now in the semis despite entering the SEC Tournament as the 15-seed. The run is even more unbelievable when you consider the Rebels' abysmal form entering play.

Arizona, Iowa State make title statement

The NCAA Tournament hasn't arrived yet, but the game of the year might have already happened. Friday's Big 12 semifinal between Arizona and Iowa State turned into an absolute banger, with both teams making clutch shots down the stretch. However, one rose above the rest when Jaden Bradley's highly-contested buzzer-beater clinched the win for the Wildcats.

Just how good was the shotmaking late in the contest? The two teams combined for baskets on the final 11 possessions of the game, with seven of them from beyond the arc. That's impressive on its own, but when you consider both teams rank in the top 5 nationally in defensive efficiency, it adds even more spice to the dish.

Arizona is a virtual lock for a No. 1 seed, while the Cyclones will likely grab one of the available No. 2 seeds. Both should be considered among the few teams capable of winning the national championship - especially if we get more of Friday's fireworks next week.

Thursday, March 12

Auburn debate is settled

The Auburn debate looked primed to continue as the Tigers held a halftime lead over Tennessee in the second round of the SEC Tournament. Thanks in large part to Bruce Pearl's continued media presence, son Steven Pearl's team has been a frequent topic in bubble conversations despite entering Thursday with a 17-15 record. However, the Volunteers did the other bubble hopefuls a solid by executing a 19-0 run in the second half to pull away for a double-digit win.

That outcome should finally end Auburn's chance for an at-large bid regardless of how loudly Bruce Pearl advocates for his son and former employer ahead of Selection Sunday. The Tigers are absolutely among the 68 most talented teams in the nation, and they do possess multiple noteworthy wins, but those results aren't significant enough to overlook the team's mediocre record, which includes a dismal 7-11 mark against SEC opponents.

Miami (OH) should be fine

Miami (Ohio)'s loss to UMass in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals shouldn't endanger their spot in the Big Dance. While the RedHawks no longer control their fate, their 31-1 record and No. 39 WAB ranking should be more than enough to get them in the field, especially with one of the weakest bubbles in recent memory. At worst, Travis Steele's team will be competing in the First Four in Dayton.

The result also suddenly opens the door for two MAC teams to make the NCAA Tournament. The conference hasn't been a two-bid league since 1999, when Kent State secured the automatic berth through the MAC Tournament and the RedHawks earned their trip to March Madness as an at-large bid.

Wednesday, March 11

Indiana is a football school

While most people tune into the NCAA Tournament in March, Indiana fans will be firing up another replay of the College Football Playoff title game. Wednesday night's result left no question that Indiana is a football school. The biggest university in the state of basketball is likely to miss March Madness for the eighth time in the last 10 years after a 13-point loss in the Big Ten Tournament to Northwestern.

The defeat to the Wildcats closed a woeful season-ending run for the Hoosiers that was dotted with double-digit losses. It was a very disappointing finish to Darian DeVries' first year in Bloomington that leaves the program with plenty of questions. On the bright side for Indiana fans, spring football is just around the corner.

Ex-star players now tourney coaches

Fans of a certain age won't spend much time naming March legends before Gerry McNamara is mentioned. The Syracuse point guard was the definition of clutch in multiple Big East and NCAA Tournament runs during his career. McNamara now has a chance to make more March memories as the head coach of Siena. The Saints were 4-28 the season before McNamara took over and are now back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 16 years.

McNamara isn't the only former star taking a mid-major to the tourney. Rod Strickland's Long Island, Speedy Claxton's Hofstra, and Nolan Smith's Tennessee State have all booked their tickets to the field of 68 with conference tournament wins.

Tuesday, March 10

One final WCC crown for Gonzaga

The WCC championship trophy has belonged to Gonzaga for the better part of three decades. The Bulldogs have claimed an outrageous 23 WCC Tournament titles since 1995, and Mark Few's overall record in the event is a stunning 56-6 all time. They received their latest piece of hardware Tuesday after a win over Santa Clara in the tournament final. The game also served as the finale for Gonzaga's time in the conference. The Bulldogs are off to the Pac-12 next season, ending one of the most successful eras in college basketball history.

During its tenure in the WCC, Gonzaga rose from plucky underdog to powerhouse program with recurring National Player of the Year contenders. Few's teams are typically among the top-scoring outfits in the country, but this year's version thrives on the other side of the ball, ranking ninth nationally in KenPom's defensive rating. ESPN's bracketology currently projects the Bulldogs as a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament's West Region, which doesn't include Michigan or Duke. In that scenario, they'd certainly be a popular pick to reach the Final Four.

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Fins up! A new Cinderella emerges

Is your team slated to miss out on March Madness? Need a rooting interest in this year's event? Get your fins up and jump aboard the Long Island bandwagon. The Sharks captured the NEC Tournament title Tuesday with a win over Mercyhurst and will soon ride the conference's automatic bid to the field of 68. Longtime NBA point guard and New York City legend Rod Strickland serves as the bench boss for the team, which is seeking its first NCAA Tournament victory after losing in each of its previous seven appearances. In 2022, Strickland's first year in charge, the Sharks produced just three wins. This year, they've racked up 24 heading into Selection Sunday.

There are plenty of mid-major programs to get behind in March Madness, so what makes Long Island special? The "fins up!" fan movement sweeping the nation via social media. Its origin story features two guys who have no ties to the school but decided to become rabid fans after attending a game and seeing a paltry crowd. The duo eventually created the now-famous action of putting your hands above your head to mimic a shark's fin during foul shots.

Long Island is the 215th team nationally in KenPom's rankings, so a tournament run seems unlikely. But Cinderellas don't concern themselves with rankings. Get your fins up and enjoy the Sharks.

Bubble bursts for Stanford, Virginia Tech

Fans of Virginia Tech and Stanford should feel comfortable making plans to do something other than watching the bracket reveal Sunday. The teams entered their respective conference tournaments firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and the hopes of both may have been dashed following their opening-round losses. The Cardinal's loss was particularly upsetting, as Stanford failed multiple times to secure a loose ball in the dying seconds before Pitt made a go-ahead putback to steal the win.

The result dropped Stanford to one of the first four teams out of the bracket in the latest edition of bracketology. The Hokies fell even further, becoming one of the next four teams out after losing to Wake Forest in overtime.

Monday, March 9

Injury woes hit Duke

The No. 1 team in the country will be severely shorthanded for the ACC Tournament and perhaps beyond. Injuries have hit Duke at the worst possible time, as starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II are set to miss the entirety of the conference tournament. While coach Jon Scheyer remains optimistic that Ngongba can return for the NCAA Tournament, the Blue Devils will have to make a deep run for Foster to have any hopes of playing again this season.

The big question is, how much will the injuries actually affect Duke? Foster and Ngongba combine for 19.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. Both are elite defensive players, and Foster is second on the team in 3-point shooting. So, yes, the Blue Devils will certainly feel the loss as they attempt to make a title push. However, as long as Cameron Boozer stays off the injury report, Duke fans can still count on their team playing the first weekend in April. The star freshman arguably has the strongest claim to the nation's top player and will now presumably get even more touches as bench players are thrust into key roles. One of those who will have to step up is his twin brother, Cayden - the likely replacement for Foster.

Santa Clara's bubble magic

Bubble teams, take notice: This is how you grab the selection committee's attention and essentially ensure your spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Santa Clara entered Monday's WCC Tournament semifinal with its place in the NCAA tourney in question. That uncertainty largely subsided Tuesday at 1:30 a.m. ET as the Broncos finalized a dramatic upset of Saint Mary's. They eventually lost the WCC championship versus Gonzaga on Tuesday, but will almost assuredly return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Steve Nash's final year in 1996. The Gaels may have hurt their seeding in the loss, but the WCC is still likely to send three teams to March Madness in Gonzaga's final season in the conference.

Florida has No. 1 seed in sights

Florida has yet to relinquish its title as reigning national champion, and it may not have to. The Gators, who are riding an 11-game winning streak, have been arguably the hottest team in the nation down the stretch. They've rebounded from a 5-4 start to the season by piledriving their SEC foes en route to securing a regular-season conference title. They sit at No. 4 in the latest AP Poll, their highest ranking since the preseason, while the latest edition of ESPN's bracketology has them holding the final 1-seed in the tournament.

Florida's path to a No. 1 seed likely hinges on the team making a decent run through the SEC Tournament, which is expected based on its sparkling 16-2 mark in conference.

The Gators have a bye to the quarterfinals in the conference tournament, meaning they'll avoid second-seeded Alabama and third-seeded Arkansas until the title game. The two SEC teams to beat Florida this season - Missouri and Auburn - are on the same side of the bracket as the Gators. However, it's hard to imagine this version of the team falling to either opponent. Another SEC championship may well be in the cards for Todd Golden's group.

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