Running analysis of World Cup knockout stage

Our soccer writers share their observations and insights throughout the 2026 World Cup. Tap here to see the full knockout bracket and every team's path to the final.

Luka the legend

If this was Luka Modric's last World Cup match, it was one wild farewell.

The Croatian captain and icon, 40, left absolutely everything on the pitch in Toronto in his side's dramatic 2-1 defeat to Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal. Modric, the second-oldest player on the field behind only his former Real Madrid teammate, was everywhere, showing the incredible box-to-box engine that has been a staple of his game since he made his international debut two decades ago. Even going up against Portugal's esteemed midfield, Modric still stood out, acting as the focal point for his team until the last.

Modric, like his country as a whole on the football scene, has always punched well above his weight. He's never been the biggest, fastest, or strongest player on any team at any point in his decorated career. But he has always been among the smartest, most intuitive, and most enjoyable to watch. Amid all the chaos - especially in Thursday's dizzying affair - he was a constant, composed presence who held everything together in midfield.

It's no wonder AC Milan are desperate to keep him for another year in what would be his age-41 season.

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Modric has arguably been the third-best player of his generation behind only Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. He broke the vaunted duo's decade-long Ballon d'Or hegemony, won the Golden Ball as the best player at the 2018 World Cup, and led his nation to second- and third-place finishes at the tournament.

The greatest player in Croatian history, Modric earned his 200th international cap earlier in this summer's World Cup and was honored by teammates and fans on the pitch to mark the occasion. It will be difficult to digest in the immediate aftermath of such a devastating loss, but those celebrations, with Modric being tossed in the air by his adoring squad, will eventually be the defining moment of the tournament for the Croatians.

Ronaldo called him a "legend" after the match, and Portugal boss Roberto Martinez succinctly summed up his brilliance after watching Modric nearly send his side home.

"There are not many times when you speak about the thinking part of the game; everything is about the tactics, the technical aspect, the physical aspect," Martinez explained. "Not many times do we talk about a player who can put the foot on the ball and make a decision. I think Modric is a beautiful example of that. Depending on how the game goes, he finds his pace, and he makes the right call."

Father Time remains undefeated, but Modric gave him one hell of a fight. - Gianluca Nesci

Wednesday, July 1

Can U.S. cope without Balogun?

What a roller-coaster ride for Folarin Balogun on Wednesday.

The U.S. striker had a goal (correctly) ruled out for offside, then opened the scoring in the first half, and then got sent off after a VAR-assisted review for "serious foul play" in his team's win over Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Was this worthy of a red?

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It seems extremely harsh, based on the precedent that's been set at this tournament already. Lionel Messi, remember, was spared a card earlier in the competition for something very similar versus Algeria. Messi's foul was arguably worse than Balogun's - his studs were higher up on the calf and he was actively trying to make a tackle. Where's the consistency?

Obviously, you have to be in control of your body on the pitch, and Balogun rakes his studs down the Achilles of Tarik Muharemovic. But there's certainly no intent on the play. Balogun, if anything, is simply trying to plant his foot, and the entire situation looks like an accidental (though unfortunate and painful) incident. These plays always look infinitely worse in slow motion, especially when the referee is being shown still images on the monitor and using those pictures to make a final decision.

The Americans advanced despite the red card - they actually added to their lead after going down to 10 men - but the loss of Balogun through his automatic red-card suspension (which can't be appealed) now looms very large going into a last-16 meeting with Belgium.

Balogun's pace, clever runs, and relentless movement would've been a nightmare to handle for a weak Belgian backline that's been wildly unconvincing at the tournament so far. Can Ricardo Pepi, the likely replacement for Balogun, wreak the same kind of havoc? - Gianluca Nesci

England robbed of penalty?

England was furious with referee Adham Makhadmeh after the match official decided not to award the Three Lions a penalty for an apparent foul by DR Congo goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi on Harry Kane late in the first half of Wednesday's last-32 contest.

Makhadmeh actually gave DR Congo a free-kick on the play, gesturing that he believed Kane was guilty of a dive. Frankly, it's a shocking decision when you review the footage, as there's clear contact on Kane's foot ...

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Even more strange: if the referee considered this a dive, why didn't he book Kane? None of it makes sense. Even if you make the argument that Kane was dragging his leg and "looking" for the contact, he's not obligated to avoid it as the attacking player who has worked himself into an advantageous position - that's the goalkeeper's responsibility, and Mpasi obviously fails to do so.

England managed to turn the game around in the second half thanks to two goals from Kane - a header and a stunning right-footed strike - to make this entire debate moot. But it was still a baffling decision. - Gianluca Nesci

England must dig deep

We're about to find out what Thomas Tuchel's England side is really made of.

The Three Lions were rocked by an early Brian Cipenga goal in their last-32 clash with DR Congo, taking a sucker punch in just the seventh minute.

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Tuesday, June 30

Mexico feeding off Azteca

Mexico's Estadio Azteca is a true footballing cathedral that has few equals, if any at all.

El Tri have taken full advantage of the incredible atmosphere at the iconic stadium throughout the 2026 World Cup, and that trend continued against Ecuador in the round of 32.

Just listen to this crowd pop when Julian Quinones thundered home the opening goal in Tuesday's knockout contest ...

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Raul Jimenez's goal to double the advantage later in the first half elicited an equally delirious crowd response.

Doing it against this opposition, in particular, is noteworthy.

Ecuador is one of the most defensively resolute national teams in the world. The last time Sebastian Beccacece's squad conceded two goals in a single match was over two years ago. El Tri scored two in 31 minutes.

Coming into the tournament, Mexico hadn't won a World Cup knockout game since 1986, when the nation last hosted the competition. The dreaded "quinto partido" curse - Spanish for "fifth game" - hung over the team like a dark cloud. It's finally been lifted. Boosted by boisterous home support, Javier Aguirre's side is only the third team in history to open the World Cup with four consecutive victories while not conceding a single goal.

And things could still get even better.

Mexico's last-16 match will also be played at the Azteca. On the evidence of this tournament so far, beating Mexico in Mexico looks nigh impossible. Either England or DR Congo will be next to try and accomplish what South Africa, South Korea, Czechia, and now Ecuador couldn't. - Gianluca Nesci

Monday, June 29

Did Germany get jobbed?

One of the great certainties in world football just got upended: Germany, for the first time ever, has lost a World Cup shootout.

It feels weird just writing that.

The four-time champion suffered a seismic 4-3 defeat on penalties to Paraguay, exiting the tournament early once again. The Germans had won all four of their previous World Cup shootouts, but showed uncharacteristic nerves from the spot as Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade, and Jonathan Tah all failed to convert from 12 yards; the big defender's effort was the worst of the bunch, as he skied his shot well over the crossbar.

But should he (and Germany) have even been in that position to begin with?

Tah scored what he thought might be a potential match-winning goal when the contest was still tied 1-1 in extra time. His thumping header, however, was called off for a foul on Paraguayan goalkeeper Orlando Gill after a review.

You be the judge ...

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The more you see it, the softer it looks.

Pierluigi Collina, the iconic ex-official who now serves as the chairman of the FIFA Referees Committee, said before the tournament that there would be added focus on blocking infractions inside the penalty area during set pieces. Even then, the final call that determined Waldemar Anton had fouled Gill was tenuous at best. There needed to be a "clear and obvious" error to overturn the on-field decision - that's always been the VAR standard - but even after watching the incident multiple times, is there really enough evidence to say Anton clearly committed a foul? Not for me.

Goalkeepers continue to be the most protected players on the pitch, and Gill certainly benefitted from that fact after the slightest contact with Anton.

Make no mistake: Paraguay was a worthy winner for showing the kind of poise from the penalty spot that Germany badly lacked. But La Albirroja were fortunate to get to that point. - Gianluca Nesci

Are you not entertained?!

The group stage at this summer's World Cup, despite fears about a dilution in quality with 48 teams, was brilliant from start to finish. The knockout stage, however, is already hitting another level. There's simply nothing like do-or-die football at the World Cup.

There wasn't a single stoppage-time goal in the knockout phase of the 2022 tournament in Qatar. We've already had two of them in as many matches this time around.

Canada's instantly iconic win Sunday - a landmark moment for the men's program - was immediately matched by Brazil on Monday, as Gabriel Martinelli slotted home a 95th-minute goal to break Japan's heart.

The Selecao were on upset watch after conceding the opener in the first half, but they stormed back for the win in dramatic fashion, punishing Japan for retreating deep too early and eventually finding the stoppage-time winner with one of the final kicks of the ball in Houston.

Martinelli's strike, teed up by a smart pass into the box from Bruno Guimaraes, is the latest winner in normal time of any World Cup knockout game on record (since 1966), according to Opta.

Brazil looked lethargic and slow in the first half - perhaps weighed down by the massive expectations that always accompany any Brazilian side at the World Cup. But Carlo Ancelotti's halftime changes helped the team play with more freedom after the interval, and it paid dividends in the waning seconds.

What drama do the remaining last-32 matches have in store? - Gianluca Nesci

Sunday, June 28

Davies makes instant impact

The protracted will-he-or-won't-he saga surrounding Canada superstar Alphonso Davies threatened to overshadow the team's World Cup campaign as Jesse Marsch's men entered the knockout stage.

Fear not - the saga's over.

Davies made a triumphant return off the bench in Sunday's historic 1-0 knockout win over South Africa, entering the contest in the 75th minute when it was goalless and very much still in the balance.

Playing in a more advanced position on the left side of Canada's midfield, his impact was immediate. Davies' introduction helped tilt the field; he created a scoring chance with one of his first involvements of the game, and he forced the South African defense to drop deep and retreat close to its own penalty box each time he got the ball and threatened to drive forward.

It wasn't perfect, but that's to be expected for someone who's played sparingly going back to his March 2025 ACL tear. Davies is clearly still not 100% fit. Some of his touches weren't as crisp as they usually are, and he lacked his trademark burst of obscene pace. And yet, he still made an enormous difference. It was an important reminder of the world-class quality he possesses, and what Canada has been missing for over a year. Imagine the kind of boost he can provide if he can get anything close to 100% ahead of the next round.

There was a genuine danger that Canada wouldn't go deep enough in the tournament for Davies to even get the opportunity to play after his latest hamstring setback in May. How cruel that would've been to the nation's most talented and recognizable star. With Davies looking on and acting as a decoy for the opening three games, the squad did its part to stick around long enough for its captain to appear. Now, he has the opportunity to lift the team, and country, to even greater heights.

"They deserve the right to go after a giant," Marsch said of the Canadians' impending last-16 clash with either the Netherlands or Morocco.

With Davies back in the fold, anything is possible from here against the perennial powers. - Gianluca Nesci

Canada eyes historic win

Make no mistake: Canada fully expected to be here.

Jesse Marsch identified a first-ever knockout appearance as a clear goal for his team long before a ball was ever kicked at the 2026 World Cup. Mission accomplished. But Canada wants (and indeed expects) even more.

Despite losing its group-stage finale, a fortuitous outcome set up Sunday's meeting with South Africa in the round of 32; Bafana Bafana were widely expected to be ousted in the opening phase. Hugo Broos' underdog squad will long remember its fateful win over South Korea that allowed the team to reach this stage, and that should be celebrated.

But Canada is, at least on paper, the better team.

After an uncharacteristically tentative start on home soil in Toronto, Canada grew into the tournament, and the relentless pressure and aggression the team showed in the closing minutes of its loss to Switzerland was more reminiscent of what this squad has become under Marsch's leadership. If that version of Canada shows up in Los Angeles, free of some of the pressures of playing at home, the Canadians should advance to the round of 16.

If Canada comes out hesitant, though, the South Africans can absolutely take advantage and cause problems on the counterattack. It's finely poised. - Gianluca Nesci

Who ya got?

Let the fun begin.

Some surprising group-stage results yielded a lopsided knockout bracket that has France, Germany, the Netherlands, Morocco, Portugal, Croatia, Spain, and Belgium all on the same side. Co-hosts the United States and Canada also find themselves on that side of the draw.

Defending champion Argentina is the big winner here.

With red-hot record breaker Lionel Messi leading the way - literally and figuratively after his historic group-stage performance - the Albiceleste appear to have the most favorable path to a semifinal berth (although South American peer Colombia may have something to say about that).

(Source: FIFA)

For a full breakdown of how we got to the knockout phase, check out all of our group-stage analysis here.

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